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Tell me everythings gonna be ok...

2 years ago I read a book about cloud computing, the big server complexes being built in Washington state, and how this is all gonna change the world by making it so that all you need is a keyboard and a monitor (or mobile equivalent) to do all your computing.

This book was frightening because that means every office building can cut its operating costs by getting rid of all their computers and most of their networking.
All those I.T. jobs gone, all those computer sales gone, and for Asia, all those manufacturing jobs gone.

Well at least computers will survive as a niche market for gamers, right?

http://www.nvidia.com/object/cloud-gaming.html

and the worst part is this...

The cable that runs from your graphics card to your monitor transmits data at almost 1.25 Gigabytes/sec.

An average cable service here in America can offer data rates at up to 12.5 Megabytes/sec.

So what is 1% of 1920 x 1080 @ 30 fps?

The odds of landlines being up-graded at this point are slim to none, its a massive amount money to get that done. The little we have in America (which is better off than most countries) was more or less subsidized by the government during the Cold War.

Wireless? Ever seen a map of the broadcast spectrum? It's beyond crowded, it's a mess, just ask the U.S. military.

In summary, Im sad.:(

Replies

  • Moosey_G
    All you'll need is a monitor and a keyboard? I mean, that sounds a bit like science fiction. Society is very, very, resistant to change. I couldn't see computers really change definition in less than century.
  • Computron
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    Computron polycounter lvl 7
    Moosey_G wrote: »
    All you'll need is a monitor and a keyboard? I mean, that sounds a bit like science fiction.

    The future is here. Actually, it was here Last year.

    Back then I got the Onlive Game System and it came with a free copy of HomeFront.

    I was playing it with just a keyboard, mouse and TV. It was pretty cool to say the least. almost no power usage, pretty much maxed out graphics, and lag free multiplayer as well, with the exception of getting the picture to your screen, since the multiplayer games are all hosted on their internal network "locally."

    The Bitrate problem you mention does have a toll on the video quality, but I thought it was alright for what it is. You don't really notice it with all the bullets wizzing by when you're focusing on the game. Onlive does a great job with compression and is REALLY bandwidth effecient. Read this: Onlive Desktop The Verge

    IDK who said it, maybe Sweeney or Carmack, but they were theorizing that we will eventually get eye tracking hardware that can make sure to only render the pixels that you are focusing on with full priority rather than what is in your periphery. That would be very interesting especially if you factor in compression and the added potential for graphical fidelity and power savings.
  • Ferg
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    Ferg polycounter lvl 17
    Things change. It happens. It'll be ok. Unless it isn't.
  • PhattyEwok
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    PhattyEwok polycounter lvl 9
    Wouldn't there just be an IT shift from maintaining client side to maintaining server side?
  • Computron
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    Computron polycounter lvl 7
    I wish I could get Onlive Desktop with 3dsMax and use it's servers for distributed rendering.

    That sounds tremendously helpful.

    Not to mention more RAM for running tons of apps simultaneously, cloud storage and "thin/portable clients" and even mobile 'clients'.

    There is also great potential for software developers because of the lack of piracy and the ability to have subscription based business models with instant updates and consistent target hardware platforms. No more problems with drivers and software not working on a certain series of AMD cards for example.

    Plus if you read that Verge article I posted, take note of the speed of their internal internet connection, it's INSANELY FAST, you could download anything to your cload computer insanely fast, be it an update for your 3d Software or some game you find online.

    There will be less IT work perhaps, in the sense that they will move over to the server side and have to worry about less types of hardware, but it does make their job easier with instant and direct Technical Support access to customers with screen sharing and other benefits.

    I see so many benifits, I hardly know what you are worried about. The biggest thing I see a problem with is privacy concerns.
  • Moosey_G
    Computron wrote: »
    The future is here. Actually, it was Last year.

    I got the Onlive Game System and it came with a free copy of HomeFront.

    I was playing it with just a keyboard, mouse and TV. It was pretty cool to say the least. almost no power usage, almost maxed graphics, and Lag free multiplayer as well, with the exception of getting the picture to your screen, since the multiplayer games are all hosted on their internal network "locally."

    The Bitrate problem you mention does have a toll on the video quality, but I thought it was alright for what it is. You don't really notice it with all the bullets wizzing by when you're focusing on the game. Onlive does a great job with compression and is REALLY bandwidth effecient. Read this: Onlive Desktop The Verge

    IDK who said it, maybe Sweeney or Carmack, but they were theorizing that we will eventually get eye tracking hardware that can make sure to only render the pixels that you are focusing on with full priority rather than what is in your periphery. That would be very interesting especially if you factor in compression and the added potential for graphical fidelity and power savings.

    Well, I spent some time researching it, but from what I can it's not really comparable. It's an innovation, sure, but of its own kind. No doubt we'll have more and more devices that cut out the middle men of certain content providing hardware, but that doesn't mean that the hardware is on the verge of being overthrown.

    Now, consoles are one thing, mainly because all they do is provide limited services built on often unstable hardware; but we use them because they're an idea from an era of limited technology. However, computers are not consoles, and you also can't really look at them like middle men. They're not just for gaming, or movie watching, or document writing, but at this point they're for pretty much everything anyone could ever need. That and the fact that hardware developers are coming out with new tech all the time like SSD's and Multiterrabyte hardware storage and better video cards, and more RAM, points to something that's doing very well for itself.

    Saying that this device (which is no doubt very cool and utilitarian) will replace computers is a bit like saying e-book reading will replace pen and paper. No doubt though, that this device could emulate more and more digital services given time... if given a lot of time.

    But, that's just my two cents. :\
  • Neox
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    Neox godlike master sticky
    Moosey_G wrote: »
    All you'll need is a monitor and a keyboard? I mean, that sounds a bit like science fiction. Society is very, very, resistant to change. I couldn't see computers really change definition in less than century.

    you actually do recognize that computers aren't around that many centuries and that they already changed A LOT since they first came up?

    549182_10150774538980658_270212045657_9988002_1952954899_n.jpg
    we had this yesterday in polycount chat
    and all this now fits into your pocket, at once! unthinkable 2 centeuries ago. The cloud stuff will take over cetain parts, heck adobe already started licensing its products via cloud, its just a matter of time you don't need your own machine anymore, it's super usefull to the big software suppliers, with this technology they can finally make sure you pay for using their software, because without paying there will just be no stream for you. Right now it lacks standards for this, but i assume its just a matter of time.
  • Moosey_G
    Neox wrote: »
    you actually do recognize that computers aren't around that many centuries and that they already changed A LOT since they first came up?

    549182_10150774538980658_270212045657_9988002_1952954899_n.jpg
    we had this yesterday in polycount chat
    and all this now fits into your pocket, at once! unthinkable 2 centeuries ago. The cloud stuff will take over cetain parts, heck adobe already started licensing its products via cloud, its just a matter of time you don't need your own machine anymore, it's super usefull to the big software suppliers, with this technology they can finally make sure you pay for using their software, because without paying there will just be no stream for you. Right now it lacks standards for this, but i assume its just a matter of time.

    Indeed, I understand that, but my point was computers have reached a certain point of fundamental-ness/basicness/intrensicness. As you've said they were not around many centuries. They didn't have the slowing down properties of their circumstantial rise at the time. Because we're also talking about a time where not a lot of people had computers, they were a niche item. We're talking about something where it was a landmark to sell 1 million. Between 1980 and the turn of millennium, sources such as the International Data Corp have released statistics that say less than 1 billion computers were sold; 835 million. According to Gartner Dataquest's statistics, in April 2002 the billionth personal computer was shipped. The second billion mark was supposedly reached in 2007. We're talking about just reaching 1/7th to 2/7th's of the world in almost 30 years. It's not really niche anymore, and it's also relatively very slow. You're talking about throwing a market, that will clearly have access to the entire world in no time flat, into the same crevice that computers originally had when they first started. And as the trendiest of the first worlders we're also forgetting the rest of the world in that respect. When you step out of the metropolitan, you begin to take a more pragmatic look at things. Especially in what are now growing and developing nations, but also in the first world. So while yes, I agree things will change, like your picture shows: it fits in your pocket. It's still there, it's still physical. When you're not connected to the internet it's still there. When you feel like you don't want to upgrade this year, it's still there. There were nothing like computers before it, it was its own precedent. Yes, it has evolved into smaller formats, but they're all still computers, they're all still hardware.

    I'm simply saying that I think people are underestimating buyer choice and supplier's intentions, as well as overestimating the adoption of new technologies. In this same concept, I don't think matter transporters would be the next logical step of transportation evolution; or destroy the market of automobiles. And I also don't think that just because humans have evolved to be extremely special relatively to nature, that our next evolutionary step would be something fundamentally destructive, even if the evolution itself appears to us to have abilities over what we have now. In a pragmatic light.

    That's all.

    I think this comic illustrates some of what I'm talking about, even though it's about a different subject.

    3039904786_65476a933a.jpg

    3039066439_2bd30d567d.jpg
  • Snefer
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    Snefer polycounter lvl 16
    People started buying laptops instead of desktops years ago. People are starting to buy smartphones/tablets instead of laptops now. And it will bel ike that for a few years before the next step really kicks in.
  • eld
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    eld polycounter lvl 18
    We're already partially cloud computing, this forum doesn't run on your computer and THEN fetch the data, all about it runs on a server, the same with stuff like google apps or web-games such as lords of ultima. Or siri on your iphone.

    These work great because there's no limiting factor in input latency, any delay cannot be noticed.

    Now take real-time applications, these require real-time input, and even though the best of tech has put to use, latency will be a constant issue. Some people don't care about latency, but many others will notice low latency much like you'd notice if your cursor in windows wasn't moving where you wanted it to.

    There's room for both kinds of tech, low-intensive or stuff that requires latency-unrelated computations will be done pretty well on cloud computing.

    High intensity low-latency stuff like gaming will be done on a dedicated machine in your house because in reality: hardware is cheap compared to the cost of games you'll end up buying, and the irony in computing is that we moved away from cloud computing and terminals way back because computers became so cheap we could have them in our homes.

    What did you spend most money on, your console or the games for it? Would cloud gaming have saved your money?, would it have been worth the compressed feed and the latency?

    Snefer wrote: »
    People started buying laptops instead of desktops years ago. People are starting to buy smartphones/tablets instead of laptops now. And it will bel ike that for a few years before the next step really kicks in.

    Actually, laptops were around quite a while, they just weren't feasible, they never replaced desktops, they just give people on the go an alternative for them, then there were people that needed to do stuff that a laptop just would've been too much for, like check the mail or browse the web, and then came smartphones.

    They're all essentially computers though.

    Much like the massive arrival of casual gaming, none of it killed the predecessor, it's a tree-like evolution.
  • Moosey_G
    eld wrote: »
    There's room for both kinds of tech, low-intensive or stuff that requires latency-unrelated computations will be done pretty well on cloud computing.

    They're all essentially computers though.

    Much like the massive arrival of casual gaming, none of it killed the predecessor, it's a tree-like evolution.

    Couldn't agree more. :)
  • [HP]
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    [HP] polycounter lvl 17
    Moosey_G wrote: »
    I couldn't see computers really change definition in less than century.

    lol, nope, don't agree!
  • Snefer
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    Snefer polycounter lvl 16
    eld: Yes, laptops were around for awhile before it took off and started replacing desktops. Same thing with tablets, same thing will happen with cloud compting. Tablets are starting to replace laptops for alot of people. And yes, laptops are actually REPLACING desktops. Desktop sales are declining while laptop sales have exploded. Most people dont buy a desktop anymore, they buy a laptop. More and more people buy tablets, in the next five years tablets will probably continue to evolve and replace laptops for alot of people.


    And what is up with people talking about centuries? ^^ In a century computers will be long gone, in the form we know them now atleast.
  • Anuxinamoon
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    Anuxinamoon polycounter lvl 14
    We had a network at school which our computer room consisted of Dumb Terminals (ie just a monitor and keyboard) hooked up to a central server which did all our computing for us. Ran our programs, stored our files. Ect.

    So in a sense this isn't new, it's just a level up of this dumb terminal network on a larger geographical scale.
  • Paradan
    @ewok: sure there would be a shift, but each farm is only gonna need a few hundred techs.

    I mainly fear for greed-driven development gaining an even stronger foothold then it already has. Sure its games are business and need profit, but give 'em an inch...

    That said, I gotta admit that I've also wished auto-desk would have some kind of cloud based PLE. Of course that brings up the problem then of who owns your work.
  • Skillmister
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    Skillmister polycounter lvl 11
    Moosey_G wrote: »
    All you'll need is a monitor and a keyboard? I mean, that sounds a bit like science fiction.

    The school my mum works in made the change to this at the start of the year. All PC labs only have monitors,keyboard,mouse, all linked to one central computer/sever. Apparently it's a world of problems just to save the school a few pounds
  • McGreed
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    McGreed polycounter lvl 15
    I remember 10 years ago I was working for a computer company, and they sold this kind of solution to companies, where the workplace was just a screen and a keyboard, and everyone was working on the server. Of course it wasn't over the internet but only local.

    I don't see it coming into effect yet, just see the backlash from always-on games and the issues it produces.
  • DeadlyFreeze
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    DeadlyFreeze polycounter lvl 17
    The future is one where you don't own anything. This is all about companies trying to stop selling products and start renting services.
  • Moosey_G
    [HP] wrote: »
    lol, nope, don't agree!
    I understand the need to look beyond limitation, and to use one's imagination to envision a certain world that would fit one's perspective the best. I'm not saying there's anything wrong with that. Just that claiming in under 20 years we'll have a new type of system for the entire world; is simplistic. And as much as you and I would endorse it, or obtain products that help sustain that field, it's still a very unpractical notion. The >entire< developed world simply doesn't have the infrastructure right now, especially I might add, in this economic decline. Maybe in work places, most definitely for the governmental sectors; but killing the computer/mobilephone/handhelds? Obsolescence of a commodity/infastructure planned to reach billions more?
    The school my mum works in made the change to this at the start of the year. All PC labs only have monitors,keyboard,mouse, all linked to one central computer/sever. Apparently it's a world of problems just to save the school a few pounds
    Indeed, and schools don't have the best track record for problem solving (at least not here) :)
  • Snefer
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    Snefer polycounter lvl 16
    Moosey_G wrote: »
    I understand the need to look beyond limitation, and to use one's imagination to envision a certain world that would fit one's perspective the best. I'm not saying there's anything wrong with that. Just that claiming in under 20 years we'll have a new type of system for the entire world; is simplistic.


    Who said 20 years? A century is 100 years.
  • r_fletch_r
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    r_fletch_r polycounter lvl 9
    It's going to take a big leap for people to be able to trust datacenters to store production materials and also a massive drop in storage prices.
  • eld
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    eld polycounter lvl 18
    Snefer wrote: »
    eld: Yes, laptops were around for awhile before it took off and started replacing desktops. Same thing with tablets, same thing will happen with cloud compting. Tablets are starting to replace laptops for alot of people. And yes, laptops are actually REPLACING desktops. Desktop sales are declining while laptop sales have exploded. Most people dont buy a desktop anymore, they buy a laptop. More and more people buy tablets, in the next five years tablets will probably continue to evolve and replace laptops for alot of people.

    And what is up with people talking about centuries? ^^ In a century computers will be long gone, in the form we know them now atleast.

    And phones outsold desktops long ago. It's important to look at some basic laws surrounding computers: There will always be a desktop that is cheaper than a laptop, and there will always be a laptop that is cheaper than a tablet.

    I can see a future where I can joke around and play xbox360 games on an emulator on my lightweight tablet, but when that happens I'll still have to start up my desktop to enter our super advanced virtual reality molecular simulating games.

    Of course, in the far future when we've built dyson spheres around suns and mastered all that there is to be mastered and we've changes our own brains there might no longer be such issues.

    Wheels, been around for ages, math is essentially the same, computers work the same way they did when they first arrived even though at hardware level we figure out new and more effective ways to have them do those things.
    Computers will not change, hardware will, software will, but the very basic fundamental way that computers execute something that we want them to execute will stick around, they're advanced calculators, and much like math that will not change.


    I myself have gone through a few netbooks, but that fact, and the fact that sales for tablets and portables have gone up will not in any way decrease the importance of desktop computers.
  • Snefer
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    Snefer polycounter lvl 16
    You also have to take into account that maybe high-end user like us arent the target audience for this. People who mostly work with some text-files, a few pictures maybe, webpages and databases, are more likely to take advantage of this earlier.

    eld: that is not the same thing. I almost dont know anyone outside of gamedevs or hardcore PC gamers that own a moderately modern desktop. Everyone I know has switched to laptops. Also there will not always be a desktop that is cheaper, because since its a declining market the low-end stuff might aswell dissapear, and only high-end workstations remain.
  • eld
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    eld polycounter lvl 18
    Snefer wrote: »
    You also have to take into account that maybe high-end user like us arent the target audience for this. People who mostly work with some text-files, a few pictures maybe, webpages and databases, are more likely to take advantage of this earlier.

    Exactly, and this is already true, we're already doing cloud computing for things like this.

    Google searches relies on google to compute search results for us, Siri on the iphone relies on apples online hardware to calculate answers.

    Polycount relies on a server somewhere deciding what will happen to what you just posted, all your browser knows is that it got a html page with a box you can type in.
  • equil
    in 10 years cloud computing will have replaced cg artists.
  • Andreas
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    Andreas polycounter lvl 11
    Moosey_G wrote: »
    I think this comic illustrates some of what I'm talking about, even though it's about a different subject.

    3039904786_65476a933a.jpg

    3039066439_2bd30d567d.jpg

    You're right, that comic isn't making the point you are trying to make at all. And your point doesn't have much evidence to support it... technology moves quite fast. It takes only about 5 years for things to change very significantly in the technology world.
  • Joseph Silverman
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    Joseph Silverman polycounter lvl 17
    Andreas, regardless of the fact that computing will be dazzlingly different from how it is now in 20 years (which is a given) we can make some pretty sound predictions of what it will NOT be.

    Cloud computing is practical, and it will not result in a net loss of jobs, I don't think -- all of those server still need parts, and maintenance, and engineering, and all of the money companies save on IT will go other places. Who lays all the cables that will be needed to network the entire world fast enough for cloud computing to be cost effective vs local computing? Do you have any idea how many people actually need to be connected? How many parts need to be produced for this infrastructure to be developed? I personally believe cloud computing is coming, because it's a safe, logical bet -- it's a cost effective, practical use of resources. But it's going to use an otherworldly amount of resources to make it happen across the entire world. There will be work for a long time. Roles can be rendered obsolete, but the laws of scarcity remain. Everyone will always need things they dont have.
    As an side: the singularity is hogwash, unless we start tapping into type 2 level power. -- which, even if we undergo a science fiction style technological renaissance tomorrow, is going to require years and years of travel and infrastructure development. It expects emulation of the human mind, which is an absolutely absurd notion. Truly abstracting all human life onto hardware is many, many, many many many MANY orders of magnitude more expensive in terms of computing (and consequently, space and energy) than running a server farm.
  • Chimp
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    Chimp interpolator
    Moosey_G wrote: »
    Now, consoles are one thing, mainly because all they do is provide limited services built on often unstable hardware;
    How are consoles built on unstable hardware? Every user has the same hardware so you can tailor your game to the exact specification to ensure a consistent experience for every user and a reliable platform for the developer to squeeze.
    When making games for desktops you have to factor in many kinds of software and hardware set up.

    Maybe I am misunderstanding you?

    Re: cloud computing in general: not sure if I really want it to happen but in terms of hardware it would be kind of good, the server side box gets upgraded as new tech arrives so the end user can always be up to date.
  • PhattyEwok
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    PhattyEwok polycounter lvl 9
    Yeah I was always under the impression that consoles sell at a lower price point because they are generally mid to low range proprietary hardware. Making them cheap to build and highly stable if the necessary testing/groundwork is done by the console manufacture ahead of time.
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