How would a Economic/ Dollar collapse affect the Game Industry?
polycounter lvl 10
So with no real sight of recovery in the coming months/years for the US global economy, and the value of the USD dropping at a rapid decent as we plunge further into debt, its safe to say the question is not `if` but `when`. Many economist are predecting as early as fall 2012 and beyond you can see some sharp alarming point of no return type situations for the USD and Euro as many countrys are already moving away from them.
Im wondering how this would affect the game industry on a global scale? Obviously nearly every country would be affected by it, but would it hurt more than others? Would some countrys strive from it as already you are seeing more companys moving over seas to do business and hire people (for cheaper wages and tax cuts). For Americans this would be a disaster, as having there standard of living and chances of employment get worst than they already are. You might start to see other countrys become stronger as the USA becomes weaker (as you are seeing in china and russia).
The good news is the entertainment industry is alot more bullet proof than other industrys. I guess no matter how bad things get, people are going to want that `escape time` were they can zone out and watch a movie or play a game.
I can see this being worst for huge publishers and developers than for indie studios though, who tend to have a more flexible budget scenario and not as much risk invested. So could it be that while major publishers and developers begin to downsize, indie studios will become stronger? Could the USA no longer be the central hub for game developers as things fall apart and massive unemployment cuts begin hitting people hard?
What would happen?
Im wondering how this would affect the game industry on a global scale? Obviously nearly every country would be affected by it, but would it hurt more than others? Would some countrys strive from it as already you are seeing more companys moving over seas to do business and hire people (for cheaper wages and tax cuts). For Americans this would be a disaster, as having there standard of living and chances of employment get worst than they already are. You might start to see other countrys become stronger as the USA becomes weaker (as you are seeing in china and russia).
The good news is the entertainment industry is alot more bullet proof than other industrys. I guess no matter how bad things get, people are going to want that `escape time` were they can zone out and watch a movie or play a game.
I can see this being worst for huge publishers and developers than for indie studios though, who tend to have a more flexible budget scenario and not as much risk invested. So could it be that while major publishers and developers begin to downsize, indie studios will become stronger? Could the USA no longer be the central hub for game developers as things fall apart and massive unemployment cuts begin hitting people hard?
What would happen?
Replies
Actually it very much is, faster than most people realise. You are starting to see many countrys and corporations liquidating there dollar assets and avoiding dealing with it completely. A good exmaple is the Oil industry, which is getting hit hard as major oil supplys are ditching the dollar completely and trading in gold and silver and other alternative currencys. Japan is preparing for the same thing with the Yang and Russia has all but stopped trading with it as well. A huge warning sign was two weeks ago China made an agreement to work with the Saudis on bypasing the petro-dollar agreement made in the 70's that force the Saudis to only sell there oil in USD which is a huge factor in the last few decades of american prosperiety. Anyways, its happening and nothing is really being done by the government to fix the problem, thus its just a matter of time.
This is a pretty good interview i bookmarked to help explain.
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/jul/15/us-debt-how-big-who-owns
In my non-professional opinion (as in I really don't have any authority in this area), I'd say it'd be a good time for people to figure out how they could become as independent from the global economy as possible. People should start seeing themselves and what they do as a sole proprietorship, learning about how they could work independently and still get by, things like that. The only job you can be sure of having is the job you give yourself, so if everything crashes you can't wait about for someone else to hire you. Moving to somewhere with a more localized economy probably wouldn't be a bad idea either; and if all else fails now would be a good time to learn how to farm :P.
http://youtu.be/f5RrGFBbbSY
Things are bad, but they are nowhere NEAR as bad as they were in 2008-2009. More jobs are being created, things are returning to normal. It will take time but damn, what do you expect? It was the largest financial crisis since the great depression. Comparatively, stock drops were worse in this crisis than then. But things are improving.
Also, what do you think would happen to an industry an a financial collapse? I mean come on, a collapse is a collapse. If people's currency is worth nothing, then EVERY industry in existence will suffer. It's kind of a ridiculous question. In a full collapse, we'd all lose.
We've dug ourselves in such a deep hole that it's gonna take YEARS to get out. I've heard that maybe by 2016 things will start to turn around and you won't see any real prosperity until about 2020?
Dollar apps aren't immersive, people will just guy games that will last a while like skyrim or something multiplayer heavy.
Other reasons are that other national currencies are also losing value, which makes it less obvious. Another reason is that we are spending less on war and instead spending it on things that will help the US economy more.
yep thats what i was gonna say. we are an anti industry. one that isnt needed but at the same time is really important. entertainment is an interesting thing.
and as time goes on games become a more accepted medium for escaping reality and not thinking about things. much easier than movies because they last longer and are interactive
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2012/smallbusiness/1203/gallery.employees/?iid=Lead
I can understand this thought process and agree that it seems one likely future, the only thing that scares me or makes me sad is thinking of all the genres that we have begun to enjoy so much being left behind - fps, rts, beat em ups like street fighter....they all play like crap on an ipad! Even kids wont enjoy these genres on an ipad as much as they will enjoy Cut the rope or Fruit ninja! Its not because the game itself is bad its just because the device is not made to play those games. So Im thinking at some point there will be controller plugged into the ipad and then we are already on a road back to full consoles again.
Also there are already games for ipad made by big teams who sculpt model and paint game assets, not on the scale of console games but the processess will be similar one day just on a smaller scale.
Wish our economy would take a few hits. Damn miners.
Infact how did the PC even become a gaming platform in the first place? In the 90s a computer was infinitely more expensive than just buying a console and had fewer games. I was a kid then, if your theory of kids only caring about quantity over quality is true how did my generation end up fueling growth in the PC game market?
But wait, just like you I started playing games on the NES, and I prefer to play games on the PC... how did that happen? Your reasoning basically boils down to the assumption that everyone thinks like you do. You prefer consoles and you've associated this to the fact that it's where you started and so everybody else in coming generations is going to have the same results. I seriously doubt this is the case.
In the present day Greece has gone beyond the point where if it does default it would be disorderly and in the US your recovery is stronger than in the EU which is the weakest of all the major economies.
In my opinion even the UK is on the way back, we have just had the first budget in 4 years that has anything in it you can call a give away. The only thing that is likely to harm the recovery is talking down economies like most opposing political parties that have a vested interest in doing that right now.
Um, nah dood the problem hasn't been fixed AT ALL. All they did was throw money at it. Which is not a good thing because it devalues the currency, the bank will collapse it's just a matter of when, and when they do, the key for the government will be to LET them fail and collapse on their own instead of throwing on the tax payer.
the chart you posted is Irrelevant, because if the interest rate goes up to like 3% or even normal levels it would be Disastrous just look at how low it is NOW. You can't pay your debts if you keep them that low, no revenue no economy. So what you posted is like an air economy (a bubble) which will blow up some day maybe late this year maybe around 2013 or 14 who knows. but, the banks can't be bailed out again.
Just look at what happened to germany shortly after WWI, when 1 trillion franks = 1 dollar. the same will happen here if the banks are bailed out.
oh and to answer the OBVIOUS question of the thread....
NOTHING GOOD.
Whaaat?! Games selling based on fun vs how good the tech demo looks! Can't have that!
I'm not trolling you, i swear.
However, I do think that what many people are seeing as "casual" game doomsday is really nothing more than a return to the roots of the games industry, where the focus HAD to be on the depth of gameplay because graphics couldn't carry a title. I feel like we're coming out of a long drawn out graphics arms race that finally cumulated in real-time photo-realism. We pretty much hit that, it's old news now, so we are evolving as an industry and we're getting innovative on many fronts, in terms of graphics and platform and gameplay etc. Apple, as they tend to do, among several others, were there at exactly the right time to cater to that need, and with their hardware they've opened up the market to the entire population.
Our industry has grown...MASSIVELY...over the past few years while all other industries have been in decline. Look at Zynga. Yes yes, i know...and yes they are a bubble that are gonna burst hardcore one of these days. However, whether you like the new wave of games or not, the truth is that they are a gateway drug into the hardcore games that we all know and love. It's helping bring it to the mainstream and opening a massive market.
Frankly I think people haven't properly explored the potential of the ipad. There are very few that truly look at how a player interacts with the device and use that to drive their design process. Expect new genres to be born that you might like better than FPS.
On the graphics front, we'll get to better than current gen FPS level graphics and beyond on devices like the ipad in a fraction of the time it took to develop on PC, and the tools to create the awesome art we like to make will keep getting better and faster as well.
I honestly see a renaissance, not a collapse, but you can't hold on to old paradigms or you'll end up a dodo. I consider that my biggest job hazard as a game artist, and something I have to be very vigilant about because our industry moves faster than just about anything else.
So, really, yes there is the economy to a degree, but I'd say that our industry is in a unique situation.
I'd be more concerned personally about companies using the economy as an excuse to offer more contract work instead of salaried positions in an attempt to take advantage of the general skittishness. This thread being a great example of that :P
and if when the shit storm comes, ugh, well... pray or something >.<
I mean, being informed is all well and good, but this is almost as silly as spending a week reading pop-science articles and declaring you know what dark matter is really made of.
Drink and make art is the correct action.
So it has me thinking about immigration and all the stuff that entails. Which honestly I wouldn't mind. Sounds like an adventure too. But it's something to think about. And I'm not sure how easy that is to do.
No that's wrong. Just check the numbers
http://www.google.com/search?q=usd+vs+eur
The Graph isn't going down. Which is why I was wondering where you get the idea that the us dollar is " rapidly sinking"
In other words: Nothing to see here, move along
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/brics-sign-two-currency-pacts-to-set-up-joint-bank/articleshow/12455093.cms
I'm just messing with ya, did you hear that jobless numbers are improving and consumer confidence is up along with the sale of durable goods?
http://www.npr.org/2012/03/27/149465680/consumers-seem-confident-economy-will-grow
http://www.npr.org/2012/03/29/149602795/new-jobless-claims-at-lowest-level-since-2008
http://www.npr.org/2012/03/28/149521825/durable-goods-orders-rebound-in-february
I'm too lazy to look up more than one source but I've seen it reported even on right wing doom and gloom news just before they blame the president for when they stubbed their toe that morning...
Some of that might be related to us being more well known these days and having a solid track record but there's no shortage of funds or projects in the games industry.
if you haven't noticed what's happening around the world is financial war, east vs west. BRICS nations vs EU//US. If the dollar gets a reserve currency competitor, it could mean hiper-inflation for the dollar and that's not good.
This is the reason gas prices are going up not because there's a lack of oil but because the dollar is loosing out as the world reserve currency, so it's loosing value.
[I don't want this to another (politics) thread that people complain about... so, i'll be on my way]