it seems like every other week another studio is shutting its doors... is the industry hurting because of the economy? or are there just so many studios now that you have to be cutting edge to keep your doors open...
Happens once in a while, the industry goes through cycles, ups and downs and such. I don't think it has anything to do with the economy though, last I checked game sales were up, and unaffected by the hurting economy.
I think a lot of it also has to do with corporate restructuring and such. Sometimes it seems worse than it is. Ensemble closing for instance. It's closing, but the heads of the studio (and presumably other employees) are going to be starting up a new indy studio that will maintain close relationships with microsoft.
Studios are still adjusting to the new development costs and such that's associated with the current gen of systems. Everyone expects UT3 graphics on every single game and that's just not possible. These games are starting to cost $50mil or more to make so they need to be 100% certain the outcome will recoup that cost and gain some profit
The industry was in a growth cycle towrads the end of the last console battle. Now it's slowing down a little. As this cycle ramps down, the same thing will happen. Most devs will know how to fully exploit the hardware and by then, most pipelines will be pretty damn solid.
In a way it could be a positive trend. A lot of the more dated and set-in-their ways studios will now be making way for vibrant independents with industry experience and know-how under their belts. The continuing growth of the more casual gaming market will provide ample revenue streams for these slimmer, less budget-intensive developers. A few years ago, smaller studios would have had no real fiscal outlets to recoup their development costs. The spiraling costs and need for enormous teams would have put them under before they even got a single game out. But now platforms like the DS, Wii, PSP, Steam, PSN, and XNA are all making small-time development viable again.
Shorter, simpler games are back in. And that opens up a lot of opportunity for the casualties of larger studios shutting their doors.
It seems like running a studio these days is like playing Janga... the longer it's allowed to go on the more likely it is to topple. The cool thing is someone always seems to picks up the pieces and starts a new game. There are less people shaking the table, most of the table shakers have taken their knocks and learned or been replaced. Like with any game the longer its around the better some people become and its amazing how they can just keep going.
I blame the economy 1st and the changing industry 2nd. Vagasso covered the 2nd really well so I'll cover the 1st.
The moneys not gone, its just enjoying a vacation.
Investors are waiting for the dust to settle before they jump back in. Some investors still have money tied up in securities and are waiting to see how much they lost.
Others jumped ship to oil futures which had amazing short term returns when the mortgage industry crumbled. Mostly because so many people pulled their money out of securities and bought up oil futures, talk about your self fulfilling prophecies.
Now congress is watching (at least until nov) so some people have started to toss money back in other risky ventures like games.
As for finding a lender willing to bank roll a project, its really doubtful until they know for certain they can cover their debts. They can't relay on the FDIC insurance because its where the money for a lot of these buy-outs is coming from. So banks are having to make sure they can cover their asses.
Vassago's got it. A last gen game cost $4 million, a "next-gen" game costs $40 million. Guess what? People are not buying ten times as many games. A lot of publishers and studios bet their asses that we would cover the costs and and we (as an industry) have not.
BUT! There is good news. Wii is a massive hit. MMO's are hugely popular. Console downloads are a big market. The iPhone has blessed us. The DS is still huge. The web is ubiquitous.
PC and Console alike the game industry is very healthy, you just have to realize that not everybody can work on huge blockbuster games. I think a lot of us should be looking to the web and things like the iPhone.
Not everyone here should be so concerned with being a badass in Zbrush - the future is there only for some of us.
Big blockbuster games will only come from big name studios and publishers in the future. You won't hear startup successes like, for example, Crytek with Far Cry. Look at Mythic. We needed EA to finish Warhammer.
You are all right that a lot of studios are starting up, but they are not going to make the same AAA stuff. This is great because it helps unshackle developers from the grips of the money men - we won't be as focused on shineys and ++ features to existing formulas. Instead, what will get big audiences is high quality, accessible gameplay. That's what the "casual games" rise is about: Accessibility.
I have to say some of the most enjoyable games I've played were not by top tier developers. I think it's healthy to have a good mix of various levels of developers out there. While high def super looking high poly games are awesome and all, I love playing simple 2d games and they can't possibly have the same dev costs and investment as something like a top tier current gen title.
Not everyone here should be so concerned with being a badass in Zbrush - the future is there only for some of us.
Big blockbuster games will only come from big name studios and publishers in the future. You won't hear startup successes like, for example, Crytek with Far Cry. Look at Mythic. We needed EA to finish Warhammer.
This is exactly why I haven't been pushing my own 3D work as much recently, and have been focusing much more on web and flash programming. With high-end modeling, there is limited potential for success in a very competitive job market. With decent skill in 2D programming and user interactivity, you could create and maintain your own project, without a huge team.
The industry is still relatively young, and is experiencing growing pains (yea that's really oversimplifying it, but so far you folks' great posts have explained it eloquently). However, we are a bunch of tenacious folks, and it seems like whenever a studio shuts its doors, there's dozens of others hungry for talent. Gaming isn't going away, but it is certainly going in new directions in order to encompass more markets and prevent future closures.
Replies
I think a lot of it also has to do with corporate restructuring and such. Sometimes it seems worse than it is. Ensemble closing for instance. It's closing, but the heads of the studio (and presumably other employees) are going to be starting up a new indy studio that will maintain close relationships with microsoft.
The industry was in a growth cycle towrads the end of the last console battle. Now it's slowing down a little. As this cycle ramps down, the same thing will happen. Most devs will know how to fully exploit the hardware and by then, most pipelines will be pretty damn solid.
Shorter, simpler games are back in. And that opens up a lot of opportunity for the casualties of larger studios shutting their doors.
I blame the economy 1st and the changing industry 2nd. Vagasso covered the 2nd really well so I'll cover the 1st.
The moneys not gone, its just enjoying a vacation.
Investors are waiting for the dust to settle before they jump back in. Some investors still have money tied up in securities and are waiting to see how much they lost.
Others jumped ship to oil futures which had amazing short term returns when the mortgage industry crumbled. Mostly because so many people pulled their money out of securities and bought up oil futures, talk about your self fulfilling prophecies.
Now congress is watching (at least until nov) so some people have started to toss money back in other risky ventures like games.
As for finding a lender willing to bank roll a project, its really doubtful until they know for certain they can cover their debts. They can't relay on the FDIC insurance because its where the money for a lot of these buy-outs is coming from. So banks are having to make sure they can cover their asses.
bla bla bla...
BUT! There is good news. Wii is a massive hit. MMO's are hugely popular. Console downloads are a big market. The iPhone has blessed us. The DS is still huge. The web is ubiquitous.
PC and Console alike the game industry is very healthy, you just have to realize that not everybody can work on huge blockbuster games. I think a lot of us should be looking to the web and things like the iPhone.
Not everyone here should be so concerned with being a badass in Zbrush - the future is there only for some of us.
Big blockbuster games will only come from big name studios and publishers in the future. You won't hear startup successes like, for example, Crytek with Far Cry. Look at Mythic. We needed EA to finish Warhammer.
You are all right that a lot of studios are starting up, but they are not going to make the same AAA stuff. This is great because it helps unshackle developers from the grips of the money men - we won't be as focused on shineys and ++ features to existing formulas. Instead, what will get big audiences is high quality, accessible gameplay. That's what the "casual games" rise is about: Accessibility.
This is exactly why I haven't been pushing my own 3D work as much recently, and have been focusing much more on web and flash programming. With high-end modeling, there is limited potential for success in a very competitive job market. With decent skill in 2D programming and user interactivity, you could create and maintain your own project, without a huge team.