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5 reasons why the (AAA) game industry is about to crash

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  • Justin Meisse
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    Justin Meisse polycounter lvl 18
    I actually know more successful indie devs than unsuccessful ones. Must be something in the water in Austin.
  • Isaiah Sherman
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    Isaiah Sherman polycounter lvl 14
    eld wrote: »
    It's never your own project when making a living comes before making the games you want to make, you suddenly find yourself becoming a slave to target-audiences and constant trial & error on overcrowded phone-markets.

    In AAA development this is very true. For indie development, however, this is almost comically untrue. That is a big allure for me.

    Many of the indie dev post-mortems I have read (even from immensely successful indie titles) they all produced games they wanted to play. A huge purpose of being an indie developer is to make what you would want to play yourself.

    I don't recall reading a post-mortem where the indie devs were concerned if they were going to generate "enough" sales to their target audience.
  • PixelMasher
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    PixelMasher veteran polycounter
    good points richard, I totally agree you have to be passionate and creative and working on something you love. It also depends on if you are truley in it for creative passion and thats the be all end all for you in life. Personally, making games is a fun way to make decent coin while not killing myself to support a lifestyle of leisure and doing things I want to do/traveling etc. I personally dont get a big ol boner over the idea of starting my own shop to make things I want to make. for me, I get a kick out of working on big titles here at ubi. I would rather be working on Assasins Creed or Watch_Dogs, which is going to be played by millions and going to be technically complex. the idea of workin on mobile stuff or facebook games. thats just me and in that case I totally agree with you. it needs intense passion and all that, and hopefully it will make you money. There is a fine line between those that could and those that should I think.

    the main reason I posted that mini rant above is because how flippantly people assume they/anyone can just "go indie" and it will be the end of their troubles. Like every layoff thread has people spouting "well atleast you can go indie now!" "oh yea! we will see more indie studios popping up"......damn well im sure all those people who just lost their jobs and have a mortgage to pay can totally dig into their savings and work on their own projects to sustain themselves for the time it takes to put out a game....

    I think there is definitley a certain ammount of planning and financial understanding that has to be put into any enterprise even if the end goal is to be working on stuff you love, maybe not making millions, but also not living in your parents basement or cardboard box etc.

    I think I am mostly irked by a lot of people who have never worked in the industry posting on PC seeing the indie route as a shortcut because they either couldnt get into a big studio or dont like people telling them what to do. That tends to lead to "go indie!" being thrown around like this magical cure all for the current way the industry is and the golden light of salvation.

    There is always going to be a business vs creatives side to the industry. I mean I am sure there are people out there that just want to jack off cows all day or something. thats cool, they might get creative satisfaction from it, but no matter how hard you can tug, that aint gonna put food on the table.

    Thats why I get excited when I see experienced devs who have not only business sense and years of experience to back it up starting something new and small-smallish. Chances are, they are going to finish what they start, it will be pretty awesome and they have all those years of experience help not make the same mistakes.
  • Autocon
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    Autocon polycounter lvl 15
    You are making the assumption that people define themselves through success. Perhaps people would rather spend a majority of their life on their own projects instead of others'?

    I have only worked AAA titles and yet not once was I making someone else's project. The games I have worked on are the games I want to play/make and contribute too. If I didn't, I wouldn't work on them and I would move somewhere else to work on the projects I wanted too.

    I make the games I work on my own in the spaces that I work on. Its you who decides its someone else's game if you don't make it your own.

    Even in a smaller indie team you are working with others who have there own ideas on what should and shouldn't be in the game. You are not always going to agree with them and going to have to make some compromises just like at a big studio. The only time it would be "your" project and "your" vision would be if you made everything yourself (aka Papers Please)
  • PixelMasher
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    PixelMasher veteran polycounter
    hahaha yea exactly Anthony. otherwise you just become that person no-one wants to work with. AKA:

    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7IvRqHaUAk"]Eric Cartman I AM GOD - YouTube[/ame]
  • Count Vertsalot
    The mere fact that there is a "AAA" category of games means the industry went to hell many years ago.
  • low odor
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    low odor polycounter lvl 17
    a smaller team means a bigger influence on the project..If I'm working on Mega Adventure Scape 3, and I am in a stable of 10 artist that answer to 2 leads, that answer to an art director.. my influence if filtered.

    If I am 1 of 2 artist working on flappy angry birds 12, your influence on the project is direct, in most cases

    It would seem people are more personally invested when they directly influence a project without the gates of leads and ADs to approve or squash their ideas..

    I'm not saying having leads and ADs is a bad thing, just that working with the guides of someone elses artistic vision is a less personal experience
  • WarrenM
    The mere fact that there is a "AAA" category of games means the industry went to hell many years ago.
    How do you figure?
  • Fwap
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    Fwap polycounter lvl 13
    I think the AAA industry is to big to boil it down to a single post proclaiming its imminent demise.
    While there are some shit companies that make terrible decisions *ahem*
    EA
    There are still some good companies out there; Valve, Blizzard, Bethesda.
  • SaboR1996
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    SaboR1996 polycounter lvl 8
    Fwap wrote: »
    I think the AAA industry is to big to boil it down to a single post proclaiming its imminent demise.
    While there are some shit companies that make terrible decisions *ahem*
    EA
    There are still some good companies out there; Valve, Blizzard, Bethesda.

    I have to argue the point about Bethesda, out of my own personal opinion even their games are starting to go downhill a bit, I mean come on, you have to buy a special edition to play a new race for elder scrolls: online, I mean what are we paying £9 for. and Skyrim was a let down to its predecessor

    But that is my opinion on the games Bethesda make, not the company, I guess my opinions based off the fact I've been waiting for my fallout 4 for too damn long :P


    another point I may add, is the fact AAA games are too focused on multiplayer aspects nowadays, maybe some people don't like multiplayer, I sure don't and I will happily admit that, I love MMOs don't get me wrong, but the constant amounts of online needed to play a game is ridiculous
  • Isaiah Sherman
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    Isaiah Sherman polycounter lvl 14
    SaboR1996 wrote: »
    I mean come on, you have to buy a special edition to play a new race for elder scrolls: online, I mean what are we paying £9 for.

    This being beside the topic, Bethesda is not developing ESO. Zenimax Online is.
  • NegevPro
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    NegevPro polycounter lvl 4
    Fwap wrote: »
    I think the AAA industry is to big to boil it down to a single post proclaiming its imminent demise.
    While there are some shit companies that make terrible decisions *ahem*
    EA
    There are still some good companies out there; Valve, Blizzard, Bethesda.
    Personally, I'm getting really tired of Valve's bullshit. I could list a number of reasons why but instead I'm just going to think about all the problems with CSGO that have existed since the beta that still aren't fixed, despite the fact that the game has turned into a nearly free and endless source of revenue for Valve. To be honest, I'm not sure if I'm getting tired of Valve or if I'm getting tired of the blind gamers that constantly claim Valve exists solely to serve PC gamer needs and that they don't care about profits.
  • Count Vertsalot
    WarrenM wrote: »
    How do you figure?

    Because someone with a AAA label is trying to say their product is superior when it's not. It's no longer about memorable moments in games. It's about who has the biggest budget. In other words, the game industry is just another soulless money machine now. It got too big and got incorporated. Just like the film industry. Just like the music industry.

    Pretty soon Tencent will own more major US game studios and it will all get even more generic. You guys think EA and Activision are bad? Just wait.
  • Quack!
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    Quack! polycounter lvl 17
    Because someone with a AAA label is trying to say their product is superior when it's not. It's no longer about memorable moments in games. It's about who has the biggest budget. In other words, the game industry is just another soulless money machine now. It got too big and got incorporated. Just like the film industry. Just like the music industry.

    Pretty soon Tencent will own more major US game studios and it will all get even more generic. You guys think EA and Activision are bad? Just wait.

    I am not going to wait for anything, I'm going to continue happily making video games.
  • skyline5gtr
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    skyline5gtr polycounter lvl 9
    I think 1 thing that needs to be discussed or brought up is game quality. He mentioned how reviewers usually put out BS review which is true, i find that lately the quality in games when it comes to content and stability is dropping. I feel like as a consumer I'm afraid to buy any game now cause its such a risk
  • JacqueChoi
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    JacqueChoi polycounter
    Cool article, and I think it brings up some really good points.
    That said, can anyone cite any economic data that shows the video game industry will crash?

    Atari 2600 doesn't account for GenX+ Millenials who grew up with a controller in their hand.


    AAA can't crash. It can however EVOLVE.

    Even if consoles crash, AAA games will still exist. Just like they continued to exist when Arcades died. Mobile phones are starting to get a LOT of AAA games.

    Walking Dead won GOTY, and is awesome on the iphone.
    XCom is pretty sweet on the iphone too. Tons of awesome games are ported to the phone all the time, Ghost Trick, The World Ends With You, Final Fantasy etc.

    Deus Ex: The Fall, Dead Space, and Infinity Blade are totally AAA games made by AAA developers.


    Let me quote an except from:
    http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2614915


    "The worldwide video game marketplace, which includes video game console hardware and software, online, mobile and PC games, will reach $93 billion in 2013, up from $79 billion in 2012, according to Gartner, Inc. Driven by strong mobile gaming and video game console and software sales, the market is forecast to reach $111 billion by 2015.
    Mobile games are the fastest-growing segment of the market, with revenue set to nearly double between 2013 and 2015 from $13.2 billion to $22 billion (see Table 1)".


    I can't see the math working out.

    How exactly are they proposing a $111billion dollar a year industry just.. crash?



    It's almost as asinine as saying "the Internet will crash".
  • Isaiah Sherman
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    Isaiah Sherman polycounter lvl 14
    I think 1 thing that needs to be discussed or brought up is game quality. He mentioned how reviewers usually put out BS review which is true, i find that lately the quality in games when it comes to content and stability is dropping. I feel like as a consumer I'm afraid to buy any game now cause its such a risk

    I actually believe the point about reviews is the most bullshit point. There is nothing empirical to support that claim.

    "Game quality" is also ambiguous, as everyone likes/dislikes different games.

    What is easier to identify is a lack of ambitious design or art direction, which the article brings up.
  • AtticusMars
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    AtticusMars greentooth
    Why do people think game reviews are rigged? Isn't it possible the reviewers just have different opinions than you?

    I mean I get that with cases like EGM giving Colonial Marines a 9 it look suspicious but those cases are rare.

    Plus sites like Metacritic make it so that 1 reviewers opinion isn't worth much, you'd have to buy out a lot of reviewers to even push the average up by just a few points.
  • Quack!
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    Quack! polycounter lvl 17
    This entire conversation got off on the wrong foot with a dumbass word like 'crash'. Like I said earlier, it is hyperbole to get your click through and it works.

    The game industry is and will change like crazy over the next few years, yes, crash is just ridiculous, there are far to many and varying paying gameplayers out there nowadays.
  • skyline5gtr
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    skyline5gtr polycounter lvl 9
    I actually believe the point about reviews is the most bullshit point. There is nothing empirical to support that claim.

    "Game quality" is also ambiguous, as everyone likes/dislikes different games.

    What is easier to identify is a lack of ambitious design or art direction, which the article brings up.

    Let me rephrase, by game quality I specifically speak to AI Bugs/Errors , Level Errors, Game Crashes , Missing Elements. QA things
  • Mark Dygert
    Quack! wrote: »
    We only hear about reports of bad shit happening, because the headline "Medium sized studios created 2000 jobs last year" will not receive as many clicks as "Disney lays off 700."
    Also, Disney switched it's model from owning studios and keeping them open 24-7 to contracting out games they want made. So while they shut down studios they also helped to create new ones who now create games for Disney.

    I'm not really convinced that the heavy handed publisher model worked all that well and the industry is reverting back to the way it was before publishers cobbled a whole lot of investor cash together to start gobbling up studios.
  • rogelio
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    rogelio greentooth
    Autocon wrote: »
    I have only worked AAA titles and yet not once was I making someone else's project. The games I have worked on are the games I want to play/make and contribute too. If I didn't, I wouldn't work on them and I would move somewhere else to work on the projects I wanted too.

    I make the games I work on my own in the spaces that I work on. Its you who decides its someone else's game if you don't make it your own.

    Even in a smaller indie team you are working with others who have there own ideas on what should and shouldn't be in the game. You are not always going to agree with them and going to have to make some compromises just like at a big studio. The only time it would be "your" project and "your" vision would be if you made everything yourself (aka Papers Please)

    Same, sure I have my own ideas and maybe one day ill put some effort in that direction to make my own game. With that said though all the AAA games I have worked on I choose and felt that I impacted the course of each. Even the lamest on my list Defjam Rapstar... Was still interesting and I was able to contribute enough to it. Basically the whole UI system was graphically designed by me with the Art Directors close eye on it, but he left me almost free reign on it. DefJam is really a UI system nothing much besides that. All the the other games I worked on I impacted besides Art. I think people get this notion that if your an artist that is all you do.... God no.... I would kill myself... as an employee anywhere you can suggest stuff and if it does not take try try again :) From my experience people tend to listen more than not.

    Every game I choose was not for the money, but because I wanted to contribute to it. Money is secondary to my decisions of where I work. Though that formula must be linked since the choices I have made so far have been pretty successful in economical aspect also.

    As for AAA going down pffft nah. But I do agree the industry needs to change, too much bloating of costs.
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