Taiwan vs China
polycounter lvl 18
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TAIPEI, Taiwan -- Hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese have marched on their capital to protest Beijing's new law sanctioning the use of force if Taipei moves toward formal independence.
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http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/03/26/taiwan.march/index.html
So if relations got bad enough between the two to have a war. I can see the following very easily.
A: Lead to a economic catastrophe in the west because of the short sightedness of corporations using the lowest amount to get their product out the door. China allows this in many ways with it's Authoritarian government. A war would upset this greatly, and even more so if "B" came into play.
B: Lead to a WWIII when Nations try to step in to defend/support Taiwan.
What are your thoughts on this potentially "dangerous" situation?
TAIPEI, Taiwan -- Hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese have marched on their capital to protest Beijing's new law sanctioning the use of force if Taipei moves toward formal independence.
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http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/03/26/taiwan.march/index.html
So if relations got bad enough between the two to have a war. I can see the following very easily.
A: Lead to a economic catastrophe in the west because of the short sightedness of corporations using the lowest amount to get their product out the door. China allows this in many ways with it's Authoritarian government. A war would upset this greatly, and even more so if "B" came into play.
B: Lead to a WWIII when Nations try to step in to defend/support Taiwan.
What are your thoughts on this potentially "dangerous" situation?
Replies
In a reasonable system, when a population is interested in seceding, it seems like you'd put it to a vote and if the vote passes, you bid them good luck and try not to burn any bridges with your autonomous new neighbor. I understand that this isn't how it works in authoritarian structures (or even our favorite democratic one, ahem), but it SEEMS that's how it should happen. I can usually understand and respect a contrary point of view even if I have to assume that circumstances I can't relate to created a particular mindset and so I just have to accept that they're valid to wrap my mind around it, but this just seems irrational. Where's the good sense in forcing a significant chunk of your population to stick around, angry and resentful? If a valuable employee were pissed off and anxious to leave, you'd shake his hand and wish him well, right?
I doubt any action by China would lead to significant hostilities. Even if Taiwan is retained as part of China through military action, it's an internal matter.
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Is it? Read near the bottom of the article.
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While the US is stretched thin in its own iron-fisted crushing of weaker people, the point that it's none of our damn business seems crucial. We don't really intervene on principle anyway ... but if the west decides there's money in Taiwan being independent, then that's a different story.
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There would seem to be more money if both sides kept the status quo for international business.
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The propaganda machine will churn out evidence of Chinese human rights abuses or allegations of genocide, and in go the marines.
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There is no need. It exists factually. See Amnesty International for their listing of China and human rights, and far as genocide? Ref: Tiananmen Square.
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I dunno why though, Taiwan seems plenty profitable under Chinese rule.
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I may be wrong, but I thought Taiwan had a totally independant economic system. They aren't reliant on China really.
Taiwan is totaly independent of china, though it does a lot of business with the main land.
Ah, that was too inclusive a word ... I only mean, "on humanitarian principle."
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Right, I gotcha. Defending Taiwan as a matter of democratic principle would be the argument, but defending Taiwan to maintain the viability of a critical technology trading partner is the practical reality. I bet no one reading this forum has a PC that's entirely free of Taiwanese manufactured parts. Anyway, let's hope this is the usual Chinese saber rattling (I sure wish they'd rattle that saber at North Korea from time to time...)
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAa
you're getting a small twisted fraction of the story.
I understand both sides, if I was a business man, I wouldn't want to turn over a portion of my profits to the government. But I tend to have more sympathy for the working class, as they are a family based society who make less than 50 USD a month individually and are getting zero benefits from the Taiwanese corporations.
Weiser_Cain: The US would win in a war, you are correct. But China has an obscene number of nukes, and would do a nasty bit of damage before throwing in the towel.
Sundance: Taiwan is an Ant, and China is a shoe ready to step on it. The Chinese Navy and Air force are frightening, they would trounce Taiwan, if it was just Taiwan VS China, then the war would be over in a matter of hours. The Chinese population and NATO support is the only thing preventing annihilation.
The only NEWS we get is corporation driven, One can really only get the full picture by talking to the people over here, and seeing things with your own eyes.
"who make less than 50 USD a month individually and are getting zero benefits from the Taiwanese corporations."
Do you know what the average is in China in this working class?
and how it knows to present a matter in a single light
its western media, it has an interest
look at the title of this thread
and a cute kid holding the sign
what is immidiately the picture in your head of?
poor kid.. him good, they bad. etc.
now, im not saying that is not the issue here,
i do not pretend to know.
discuss this as you will, but remember.. how disgustingly biased the media is
I seriously doubt nukes are on the table. As far as I know the chinese don't have the capacity to deliver the warheads to anyone but Taiwan. And such a action would force us to retaliate turning the loss of a war into the destruction of the state or worse.
I'm not trying to paint a rosey picture of China. They are a developing country and are still very poor.
I'm just saying there are two sides to the story.
This article makes it sound like all of Taiwan wants to escape the evils of china. When the reality is, it's half and half.
(no thanks, already got one)
I really don't see what the other half could be in any good light. China wants to control Taiwan even if it has to destroy it and kill the people. I'm interested now, show me something from the chinese governments perspective. I'd like to see how they justify attacking Taiwan.
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I think you didn't get what sumguy (thanks for the insider info btw) said:
The Taiwanese population is devided by half. The one half actually wants to belong to China, or at least doesn't mind it. (and yes China isn't the evil overlord some of the western media wants us to believe... it has some serious human rights issues though... as have some other "developed" countries)
There should be a massive political effort before any kind of war is thought up. Many nations of the world need to coax China into backing down. You can't bully them, it just won't work. And the U.S alone won't be able to do anything.
Waging war on China, North Korea or Iran would bring about the end, imo. A nuclear/bio/chem war of immense proportions would be waged.
Like Einstien said, "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones".
at least with the current war our leaders were clever enough to try and connect it with disaster that hit home with a lot of folks and people were more than willing to serve the country.. but save tawain.. thats going to harder to convince people of.. the only way i see is if they say secret white house faries recovered documents with super secret usa magic that says china will kill us all and rape our grandmas if we dont fight them.. actually that will probably be more believable than fairy tale they acutally come up with..
Navy to navy we'd kick their ass.
Airforce to airforce we'd kick their ass.
But We don't even fight like that.
We fight with superior training, tactics, and hardware.
We aren't going to be fighting hand to hand or in the trenches.
If the chinese are stupid enough to nuke a U.S. city(or even the army for that matter) they'll quickly find out how superior our arsenal is, forget about Taiwan. Going after U.S.cities would mean all bets are off, we(well most of us) would be screaming bloody murder. And we'd get it.
A war with china would be a lot cleaner, with clearer objectives than Iraq. Shades of Korea but still a clearer threat. If they went non-conventional the war would be over in days and would change the world, radicalizing the U.S..
Even if China didn't launch, any other country with nukes would suddently feel their protection is gone and the US is an immediate threat. Even if the US could conquer the world with its army, China or Russia could destroy it.
But Bush isn't that stupid (even if he was he'd be killed before he could give the order). He won't take any chances. Attacking China on the hope that they won't launch nukes is hopeless. NEVER assume your enemy fucks up. The people in charge of the nukes have nothing to lose because they know the invaders will kill them in the end. With these things you can't take any chances. Bush ignored North Korea but attacked Iraq because of "WMDs". He'll never attack a country with nukes.
yeah china would demolish us.. i dont care how bad we are blowing up peasents with firecrackers now if it came to a fight with china there would be no chance.. i dont even know if america would even stand up to the plate unless they feel like its absolutley nessasary.. china's military is actually more than 2.8 million strong.. compare that to the less than 200,000 iraqis and you got a problem.. ecspecially if we are already scared about a military head count.. http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/02/06/troops/
at least with the current war our leaders were clever enough to try and connect it with disaster that hit home with a lot of folks and people were more than willing to serve the country.. but save tawain.. thats going to harder to convince people of.. the only way i see is if they say secret white house faries recovered documents with super secret usa magic that says china will kill us all and rape our grandmas if we dont fight them.. actually that will probably be more believable than fairy tale they acutally come up with..
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are you kidding me? 2.8 million people packed into a dense area does not equal success.
He'll never attack a country with nukes.
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I theory you are right, but a country with lets say 10 nukes (and it is probably more like 1-3) like North Korea is not quite save yet. Exspecially since they don't have rockets that reach the american continent.
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He'll never attack a country with nukes.
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I theory you are right, but a country with lets say 10 nukes (and it is probably more like 1-3) like North Korea is not quite save yet. Exspecially since they don't have rockets that reach the american continent.
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exactly. you guys keep talkin about china will obliterate us just because they have huge masses and the weapons, but the fact is, they are a poorer country and lack the equipment necessary to transport troops/weapons and launch enough nukes to take out the US
As to Nukes, the Chinese Missiles aren't of the quality of Russian missiles, but I doubt it will go to Nukes, but it will be embarassing and embittering to the PRC Ruling couuncil. The one problem with "opne war" with the U.S. is that a good portion of private bank accounts, as well as agood chuink of the PRC's funds are in U.S. bankls, which are seen as more stable and less prone to corruption than the native PRC banks. as bitter and angry as they might get, I don't think they wouldwant to flush their piggy banks.
Scott
exactly. you guys keep talkin about china will obliterate us just because they have huge masses and the weapons, but the fact is, they are a poorer country and lack the equipment necessary to transport troops/weapons and launch enough nukes to take out the US
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I was talking about North Korea, China is a different matter, they can send people into orbit (as they have recently proven), which actually means they have rockets capable to reach any place on earth.
I believe these channels are available on international cable now.
(CCTV is bullshit btw, it's another CNN or BBC) interesting none the less.
www.cctv.com
Even the US strategy in the case of a Soviet invasion of West Berlin in the 40-50s, both sides had no mission plan of sending nukes, they would have done conventional warfare up intil a deal was set.
IMO, nukes will never be used by a modern powerful country, possibly only a small rogue nation or a group of terrorists.
Tawain and China have been saber rattling about the cessation of union for over 20 years now.
It is an enternal affair. It's akin to the North and South in the USA.