The future of portable/mobile gaming
polycounter lvl 18
Alright so, I wanted to share my prediction of what will eventually happen to the portable/mobile games market in the next several years, and see what you guys think.
It's my personal belief that around the time the iPhone 5 and iPad 3's release (1-2) years these tablets and smart phones will begin to compete directly with nintendo and Sony for the 'portable gaming' real-estate, and could in time actually become more profitable.
Let's face it, mobile gaming has always been a pretty ill respected and weak facet of the industry. Even before the iPhone the games on there have been pretty crummy as well as the technology backing them. It wasn't until recently (iPhone 3/4) that people are 'slowly' taking notice of these devices as potential gaming platforms. One example of this being Infinity Blade, a game built with the unreal engine that has amazing graphics and intuitive controls. It quickly became the fastest grossing app ever, and has sold over 13 million copy's, a remarkable achievement and in alot of ways a turning point in mobile gaming. Now all of a sudden, these devices, which in terms of gaming have always been thought of as gimmicky, with simple 2D platformers such as Angry Birds and Zombieville USA holding the reigns, can now run games with amazing unreal powered graphics and house innovative gameplay.
So as epic releases unreal tech to developers, and a slew of games begin development, a year later it's still not enough to turn heads let alone compete with Sony or nintendo. Around this time apple goes ahead and creates the A5 chip, which was initially introduced in the iPad2. Over a year later there is not one game that has come close to utilizing the full potentiall of this chip, it's THAT powerful. So as developers continue to try to cash in on the simple 2D platformers hoping to get a piece of the pie, there is not much in the way of innovation or pushing the platform forward. And so here we are, with what is slowly becoming a powerhouse gaming machine, and yet with very very few games to support this new technology. It's like having the PS3 come out but developers continue to stick to the PS2 because in there eyes, that's where the consumer base is at, and why fix what is not broken?
Epic games, without a doubt realizes this, which of course explains why they were at the apple keynote introducing Infinity Blade 2 for the iPhone 4S (A5) chip, to help promote this amazing technology and try to show people the potential for gaming on these devices.
So than you have nintendo DS and the upcoming playstation Vita. Nintendo has always dominated the portable games market, if anything because they had no real competition and also because they have a solid lineup of good games. Well what would happen if the developers of these games, realizing the potential of these devices began making there games for the iOS or android platforms? Well, it just happened a few weeks ago with scribblenaughts, a very popular nintendo DS game. It quickly became apples 'game of the week' and sold very well. What's even more amazing, is while this game cost 40$ on a nintendo DS it sold for 5-10$ on the iPhone, and that is including part 1, 2 and ten bonus levels. Why the price difference? Because it's sold digitally and does not require a publisher. This is a win/win for developers and gamers alike.
And than we have the playstation vita. Touted as the first 'next gen' gaming device with technology that rivals the current gen consoles. This is a device that's technology will not change throughout it's entire life span. Well not only will the iPad 3 and iPhone 5 have similar specs (A6 chip) we will likely see the A7 chip or higher in these devices before the vitas lifespan wears out.
So with all of this in mind, why would you 'really' need to buy these portable gaming platforms when the iOS devices are in fact just as much if not more powerful? If the same game that is awesome on the nintendo DS or Vita is on your phone or tablet and cost way cheaper? What could possibly convince the customer that spending 400$ on a DS or vita is a smarter investment than a tablet or phone that is not only more powerful gaming wise but also has all these other great features such as Internet, camera, apps, ect ect?
The only advantage I see them having is physical controls, but will that really matter that much to people when the same games are on there phone for a fraction of the cost? I think it's just a matter of time before people start to realize wow, not only can my device do all these things, but now it's a gaming machine too!
What do you guys think?
It's my personal belief that around the time the iPhone 5 and iPad 3's release (1-2) years these tablets and smart phones will begin to compete directly with nintendo and Sony for the 'portable gaming' real-estate, and could in time actually become more profitable.
Let's face it, mobile gaming has always been a pretty ill respected and weak facet of the industry. Even before the iPhone the games on there have been pretty crummy as well as the technology backing them. It wasn't until recently (iPhone 3/4) that people are 'slowly' taking notice of these devices as potential gaming platforms. One example of this being Infinity Blade, a game built with the unreal engine that has amazing graphics and intuitive controls. It quickly became the fastest grossing app ever, and has sold over 13 million copy's, a remarkable achievement and in alot of ways a turning point in mobile gaming. Now all of a sudden, these devices, which in terms of gaming have always been thought of as gimmicky, with simple 2D platformers such as Angry Birds and Zombieville USA holding the reigns, can now run games with amazing unreal powered graphics and house innovative gameplay.
So as epic releases unreal tech to developers, and a slew of games begin development, a year later it's still not enough to turn heads let alone compete with Sony or nintendo. Around this time apple goes ahead and creates the A5 chip, which was initially introduced in the iPad2. Over a year later there is not one game that has come close to utilizing the full potentiall of this chip, it's THAT powerful. So as developers continue to try to cash in on the simple 2D platformers hoping to get a piece of the pie, there is not much in the way of innovation or pushing the platform forward. And so here we are, with what is slowly becoming a powerhouse gaming machine, and yet with very very few games to support this new technology. It's like having the PS3 come out but developers continue to stick to the PS2 because in there eyes, that's where the consumer base is at, and why fix what is not broken?
Epic games, without a doubt realizes this, which of course explains why they were at the apple keynote introducing Infinity Blade 2 for the iPhone 4S (A5) chip, to help promote this amazing technology and try to show people the potential for gaming on these devices.
So than you have nintendo DS and the upcoming playstation Vita. Nintendo has always dominated the portable games market, if anything because they had no real competition and also because they have a solid lineup of good games. Well what would happen if the developers of these games, realizing the potential of these devices began making there games for the iOS or android platforms? Well, it just happened a few weeks ago with scribblenaughts, a very popular nintendo DS game. It quickly became apples 'game of the week' and sold very well. What's even more amazing, is while this game cost 40$ on a nintendo DS it sold for 5-10$ on the iPhone, and that is including part 1, 2 and ten bonus levels. Why the price difference? Because it's sold digitally and does not require a publisher. This is a win/win for developers and gamers alike.
And than we have the playstation vita. Touted as the first 'next gen' gaming device with technology that rivals the current gen consoles. This is a device that's technology will not change throughout it's entire life span. Well not only will the iPad 3 and iPhone 5 have similar specs (A6 chip) we will likely see the A7 chip or higher in these devices before the vitas lifespan wears out.
So with all of this in mind, why would you 'really' need to buy these portable gaming platforms when the iOS devices are in fact just as much if not more powerful? If the same game that is awesome on the nintendo DS or Vita is on your phone or tablet and cost way cheaper? What could possibly convince the customer that spending 400$ on a DS or vita is a smarter investment than a tablet or phone that is not only more powerful gaming wise but also has all these other great features such as Internet, camera, apps, ect ect?
The only advantage I see them having is physical controls, but will that really matter that much to people when the same games are on there phone for a fraction of the cost? I think it's just a matter of time before people start to realize wow, not only can my device do all these things, but now it's a gaming machine too!
What do you guys think?
Replies
Could we see a future where Nintendo makes games for iOS & Android? Time travel back in time during the SEGA & Nintendo wars and tell a kid that Sonic will appear on a Nintendo console.
You can play cheaper, visually more impressiove games on the PC that are otherwise identical to their Xbox 360 counterparts. That doesn't mean that everyone does.
Final Fantasy is out on iOS, there is even one that is a direct port of the PSP version and it is of course, half the price, with the same quality.
First party titles do help keep these devices afloat. But i dont think its enough to stop the threat of smartphones and devices completely. Especially once developers start catching on.
It's direct ports of old titles, it's not feasible to develop high budget titles for the phone market as the price-point is incredibly low as it is, and much of the market is looking for short experiences.
This is what separates and makes separation possible between handheld consoles and the iphone/android market.
The Wii has dominated the "console-wars" this time around, but yet it has not managed to consume the 360, the ps3 or the pc as platforms, it's just different markets.
why?
I think Apple completely destroyed Nintendo's handlheld market, and it's not even close. Sony never really held a candle to Nintendo.
The only difference is there's going to be less emphasis on 'control' based games, and more emphasis on point/click type games.
d1ver it's funny you mention Final Fantasy:
Final Fantasy for ios:
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Here's Square Enix's Chaos Rings for iOS:
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As for the future of consoles, i dont think it will be either Sony OR Nintendo that rules this roost. I think apple will innovate here as well. As quoted by Gabe Newell
"Newell believes Apple will be the ones to lead us into a post-console era, suspecting that the company "will launch a living room product that redefines people's expectations really strongly and the notion of a separate console platform will disappear."
And lastly, Squaresoft just announced there own IP's for continuing support on the apple devices, including a new RPG using the unreal engine. I would be willing to bet squaresoft, as one example, is very aware of the rising tides of this platform as shown by there massive support thus far.
Also I can't believe Epic hasn't done anything with android. Even if the iPhone became the hardcore gaming phone, I still wouldn't buy one.
with only numbers you might be right and i guess there will be bigger budgets sooner or later, but unless the gamers get better controls it just won't work on the same level as real consoles would, because it just can't the touch controls in most games are just very bad and indirect, usually doesn't work for many fast games.
While i would love to play more good games on my ipad or android phone i right now just don't see that coming without extra peripherals
The iPhone and iPad iterations over the years are actually very similar to code for. Thats why Apple have a very large market, there is no great difference between the code, yet the the actual power of the hardware gets greater every year. Android developers, on the other hand have had a much harder time getting their software to work on the numerous different devices, and google are now pushing for a more unified approach, to make sure that software developed with Android works on all hardware without much code change. Mobile devices actually allow more freedom in terms of what games get out there, for a start all you need is the SDK, license for £70, a device and you're away. With Nintendo and Sony you need to buy fairly expensive development kits, and get their quality approval to ship a game. If anything the rise of mobile development has allowed for more bedroom programming, the way it was back in the day.
This. Mobile gaming for me, is mainly to pass the time while waiting for the bus, or while on a bus. You'll never see me sitting down crouched over a 4 inch screen for hours, especially when I have a PC and console.
I have a feeling that the iOS gaming market will probably implode upon itself sometime in the future. I don't see it becoming "the future of gaming".
I know thats just trolling, but completely exemplifies stupid fanboyism.
This thread is "The future of portable/mobile gaming"
But to answer the question more fully I'd say that developers don't take it too seriously now and the rare games that might make me want to pick up a handheld are practically non existent on iOS. But all and all I don't find it so dramatic, because most "proper" games are on consoles and I very much do hope that sony and microsoft with their new hardware generation will present a lot of things that will keep them at the forefront of interactive entertainment for ~7 more years.
as far as I don't like flat controller , but this is roughly the concept of future gaming. decent graphic processor + affordable physical controller + total integration. = win ( whoever the manufacture is )
very valid point btw. HD TV connectivity and a proper controller, a few iterations of hardware and IPad will be the platform of the future.
That looks like one heck of an expensive controller. :P
that TV is an expensive gaming system as well.
this to PSP versions of final fantasy is like FF for gamecube to ps2 releases
they both are parts of the same franchise, but the production quality and gameplay experience is so vastly different.
compare to FF reishiki, 5 or 6 years in development:
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and I don't really think anyone is going to release iOs games with 2+ GB installation and an appropriate pricetag anytime soon.
in 2-3 years things might change, might not.
The future is simple: more games going DD exclusive, lower barrier to entry for indies (via app-store equivalents and more accessible console development). I think everyone can agree on these two points.
Nintendo are a little less predictable and will probably continue doing their own thing for better or worse.
There's also the sequel to the NGage that Nokia have been threatening to release for about 5 years now. Now there was a system ahead of its time.
The NGage2 was just supposed to be software, not hardware, and sony did release a mobile phone already, they want to seperate the psp and mobile phones for a good reason: the games.
As mentioned several times already though, the mobile market can only overtake the portable gaming market if it BECOMES that market, which will never happen no matter how big the mobile market becomes.
These markets will exist together, just as much as pc and consoles exist together.
this is the real issue and the only major difference between a mobile game console like psp or 3ds and a smartphone is the controls. Without sticks or buttons I feel that ios and smartphone games will never evolve into the full experiences they should be. The budgets are available and the game quality is excellent, just look at this...
http://blog.gameloft.com/index.php/2011/10/27/modern-combat-3-fallen-nation-launches-for-iphone-and-ipad/
it is amazing to see but trying to play it is soooo terrible with touch controls that I am sure most gamers just download it and play for a few minutes and then give up.
Until apple release a peripheral control interface for games or an iphone-gamer edition with built in controls the mobile games industry will be crippled.
Loads of studios that used to specialise in PSP and DS games have shifted their entire focus to the phone market. The big names will go where the money is. And that includes Sony. They're always slow to react but there's little chance they're going to leave that whole pie to Iphone and Android without grabbing a piece for themselves.
As I've said, there's no room for the long-length high price games market on the app-market where prices are scraping the floor, nintendo and sony might want to touch it a bit, but they're not going to give up the hardcore market that quickly.
And developers on the app-market, most of who are indie-developers, are not going to start spending years on each title just to sell it for a few dollars, it would be suicide.
They will keep developing short compressed experiences, or port over old games.
When people no longer want bigger gaming experiences, they'll drop the sony and nintendo consoles.
QFT.
People always thought there would be music/mp3 players(ipods etc) and phones as seperate devices, now pretty much everyone with a smartphone uses it as their mp3 player. I don't see why games wouldn't go the same way and dedicated portable gaming consoles would become more for the seriously hardcore market as people get used to having one device that is very capable of all these things. We just dont have that device yet because of the controls needed and the backing of a big name like apple.
I think the hardcore market alone isnt going to be enough for the big players to rely on as there are already quite a lot of hardcore ios/mobile games with impressive production value and things are only just getting started. Also if you look at the big games on portable gaming devices they are mostly games for the casual/young market which is exactly the kind of people mobile games are appealing to.
What would be the most expensive game developed for the iphone?
I would guess something by gameloft, they have pretty high production-values, but the games they make are still pretty short relative to console games, and the price-point is low as you can't compete with the market there otherwise, even if the game was lengthy.
There's also a big future on there for free to play games, and dlc.
Dont know, maybe real racing 2 http://www.industrygamers.com/news/iphone-hit-real-racing-2-cost-2-million-to-make/ or some of gamelofts games or shadowgun? People dont often reveal costs or development times but where I work we try to release a fun little mobile game every few months.
I dont think there is a massive demand for expensive to develop games for the mobile or handheld market, as they are catering to mostly casual gamers, that is the beauty of it and why I feel mobile/smartphone will succeed over dedicated gaming devices as they are competing for mostly the same very large target market.
Console/PC games are a completely different market in my opinion and handheld games shouldn't be compared to that market, considering as you say the budgets are smaller, prices of games are much less and the experiences more short lived and compact. Games like shadowgun http://toucharcade.com/2011/09/29/shadowgun-review/ seem to get unfairly compared to the likes of gears of war.
I dont expect mobile development to ever be as big budget as console development but I do expect it to get closer to that as the years go by and the devices get closer to being full replacements for any hand held gaming device.
Im totally just speculating with all these ideas but I think none of this smartphone gaming supremacy will be possible without good controllers built into the phones and none of that is probably ever going to happen.
Yeah definitely seems like free to play plus social and casual games with dlc are pushing forward on these smartphones.
for example today : Castlevania Symphony of Night game, that has dated graphic engine , yet have massive amount of content. yet we can't pull that same experience in the new iphone 4s yet. ( not just graphic but overall experience )
The most striking trend is that iOS and Android games have tripled their market share from roughly 20% in 2009 to nearly 60% in just two years. Simultaneously, Nintendo, the once dominant player, has been crushed down to owning about one-third of market in 2011, from having controlled more than two-thirds in 2009. Combined, iOS and Android game revenue delivered $500 million, $800 million and $1.9 billion over 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively.
Flurry's data for 2011 is based on estimates for the final two months of the year, but suggests that the rapid growth in gaming on smartphone platforms is showing no signs of slowing. The market dynamics of free or low-cost games sometimes supplemented by in-app purchases and played on multi-function devices versus dedicated gaming devices with relatively high-cost game titles are clearly playing out in favor of iOS and Android. The result has been a surging gaming market increasingly attracting casual gamers willing to spend a few dollars to play on their phones, while established players have seen not only their shares but also their revenue declining each year.
Nintendo has been resisting increasing pressure to bring its games to the iPhone and other platforms, sticking by its long-standing tradition of making its games exclusive to its own hardware. Flurry suggests that the rapidly-shifting landscape of portable gaming may soon bring Nintendo face-to-face with a "Nokia-like" decision whether to jump over to smartphone platforms or watch its business erode away.
Gee, I wonder why smart phone game sales revenue would be greater then from Sony + Nintendo? I mean, clearly the DS and PSP are in the prime of their lives right now and should be selling gangbusters. And the 3DS has such a massive library how could anyone not want to run out and buy one right now? It's a good thing too, because Sony doesn't have any upcoming handheld platforms to compete in the mobile space, and Nintendos 3DS library has reached its peak.
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