PS5, Scarlett, Google Stadia, Other next gen consoles, lets get on down to specifics

1
polycounter
Offline / Send Message
littleclaude polycounter
As the PS5 and XBox2 are now widely talked about being in development at particular studios with what might be a  2019 or more likely 2020 release date, I was wondering if we could start getting on down to some technical performance chit chat.

From an artistic point of view if we can see what we should be gearing ourselves up for with some rough ideas of specifications for our artifacts, that would be a great starting point.

The following is just reading between the lines and I have added links to the various sources where I can.

The Games
  • Current consoles games that could well skipping a generation and end up releasing on next gen consoles: - (Link 21/12/2018)

The Specs
  • CPU: Eight custom x86 cores clocked at 2.3GHz
  • GPU: 40 customized compute units clocked at 1172MHz
  • Memory: 12GB GDDR5, 326GB/s bandwidth
  • 4K UHD Blu-ray optical drive

Off the Wall Wild Cards? 
Artistic Graphic Specs
  • Tessellation
  • PBR
  • Corrective morph shapes for anatomy 
  • 150-200K is the norm for a character
  • 250-500K for a vehicle 


Image link, 21/12/2018






A politician would say the following game is definitely going to come out on a games console, whether its this generation or the next is besides the point, what we need to take from this is the amazing development of the games fidelity and graphics, so let's please lets not get bogged down with this gen or next gen..... :), thank you next question,.......wink wink no what I mean. 



Okay that's a start, what do you think?


    Replies

    • thomasp
      Offline / Send Message
      thomasp sublime tool
      DirectX on a Sony console - sure sounds like a first.

      Also if they have to change the controlller design - hey, I'm still waiting for this:

      ;)


    • littleclaude
      Offline / Send Message
      littleclaude polycounter
      The list are rough specs that we might see on either console like the following was for the Sony but feel free to make a list for both machines if you like.
      • Customized version AMD’s Ryzen CPU tec -  (link 21/12/2018)
    • thomasp
      Offline / Send Message
      thomasp sublime tool
      If we assume a late 2019 release of a new console then whatever is considered on a level with a decent mid-range PC configuration one year before release would seem like what you could expect as the end result. 'Customized' in this context usually means 'cut-down' (clock, bandwidth, number of cores and so on).
      After all you are talking about a machine that can't exceed a certain price threshold and has to fit into a rather compact case, preferably without causing another Red-Ring-of-Death type scenario.

      Some of the games mentioned will likely appear on PS4 and its potential successor - simply because the established platform initially sells way better. Those would have to be some pretty delayed games on that list to be able to afford skipping this generation.

      So - since this is more of a developer- and not a gamer-forum - can we just say any game that has to maintain a PS4- as well as a PS5-port will have to be geared towards the former. Throw in a shiny but non-essential feature or two to claim next-gen-readiness.


    • PolyHertz
      Offline / Send Message
      PolyHertz interpolator
      Tech wise it's fairly obvious that they will be using Zen2 based CPUs. Sonys console will probably have some integrated VR technologies, and there will also probably be some very limited raytracing functionality.

      RAM is more difficult to speculate on. HBM3 wont be ready in time, and GDDR6 is still fairly expensive. My guess though would be that the new Sony and MS consoles will use between 16GB and 24GB of GDDR6.
    • oglu
      Offline / Send Message
      oglu interpolator
      Both GPUs are build by AMD like in the past. 
    • ZacD
      Offline / Send Message
      ZacD interpolator
      Please have SSD caching. Would love to see something like Intel optane (or StoreMI, the AMD version). And hopefully HDR 4k support will be standard on every game (with resolution scaling/dynamic resolution of course). 
    • Alex Javor
      Offline / Send Message
      Alex Javor hero character
      Back when I was just a gamer, I never really cared about newer consoles and fancier graphics. I was always about the gameplay. 

      But now this: "150-200K is the norm for a character" gets me all giddy. That's a lot to play with!
    • poopipe
      Offline / Send Message
      poopipe ngon master
      As Thomasp says anything in full scale development now won't be geared towards the next gen anyway.   

      Even in the event that early devkits are widely available to first parties now (I don't know, I don't work for one anymore)  they'll be working with engine tech built for current gen hardware. 

      I suspect a 4k and not half-arsed HDR will be the most exciting thing we see for a couple of years. 
    • lefix
      Offline / Send Message
      lefix polycounter lvl 10
      I am the only one thinking one of the next, if not the next, console generations will be a cloud streaming box/service?
      Customers will no longer have to worry about hardware, but their internet connection. The tech is already there, it is more about the internet infrastructure (some countries still need better connection for this to work).
    • sacboi
      Offline / Send Message
      sacboi polycounter

      Agreed.

      The tech is already there, it is more about the internet infrastructure (some countries still need better connection for this to work).

      ...and for those of us from down under a AUS$70 billion *salutary tale* in what NOT to do, which does bogle one's mind given we'd brought the invention of  WiFi too the world : /

    • ZacD
      Offline / Send Message
      ZacD interpolator
      The Xbox One initially tried to be an always online console, and that failed hard. 
    • sacboi
      Offline / Send Message
      sacboi polycounter
      Yeah, but then again may yet be an option for Sony....who knows?!
      https://www.ps5playstation5.com/ps5-wont-be-traditional-gaming-console
    • defragger
      Offline / Send Message
      defragger interpolator
      oglu said:
      Both GPUs are build by AMD like in the past. 
      Are you sure about that? It would be a terrible decision.
      PS4 already lacked massively on the GPU choice compared to PC hardware. I don't think they can do this again.
    • PolyHertz
      Offline / Send Message
      PolyHertz interpolator
      Yes, AMD is making the GPU for both, and supposedly it's based on the upcoming Navi architecture.
      Hard to say what to expect from the GPU, but AMD has been doing a great job as of late on the CPU front so at the very least the CPUs in both consoles will probably be very good.

      Also, remember that the PS3 had an nvidia GPU and it wasn't exactly great. MS also used nvidia back on the original xbox, and from what I remember one of the reasons MS pushed into the following generation (xbox360) as fast as they could was to get away from nvidia. The only reason Nintendo is using them now is because nvidia offered them a very good deal just to appease its stock holders (who were mad that nvidia was letting the console market get taken over by AMD). Plus having your CPU and GPU made by two different companies isn't cost efficient at all. GPU power is not the only factor involved when deciding these things.
    • defragger
      Offline / Send Message
      defragger interpolator
      ahh shaite ... I can see where they are coming from but I don't think it's a wise long term decision. I have no doubt the CPU will be good though. But for game developers a lack of GPU power is just awful and with AMD GPUs it can be a real pain in the butt to get stuff rendered properly.
    • marks
      Offline / Send Message
      marks polycounter lvl 10
      128gb of memory? I feel like this might be, just maybe, a tad optimistic
    • ZacD
      Offline / Send Message
      ZacD interpolator
      Yeah, I expect 16gb of HBM, GDDR5X, or GDDR6. Maybe a 128gb SSD for caching/storage?
    • PolyHertz
      Offline / Send Message
      PolyHertz interpolator
      Yea I'm curious about that too, why does the main post list 128GB of RAM? That's so far out of the realm of possibility it almost comes across as a joke. Assuming each GDDR6 8GB module costs $20 (which is actually lower then the last bulk price I heard) you'd still be looking at $320 for just the RAM, and a console is a lot more then just a pile of RAM. I suppose if next gen both Sony and MS decide to up the base price of their new consoles to around $700 then it could be done, but I just don't think the market would react favorably to such a price increase.
    • thomasp
      Offline / Send Message
      thomasp sublime tool
      defragger said:
      But for game developers a lack of GPU power is just awful and with AMD GPUs it can be a real pain in the butt to get stuff rendered properly.

      a top of the line GPU that has any chance of competing with a gaming PC at release time will cost as much as an entire console. ;)

      why is it a pain to get things rendered on AMD btw? I find them uninteresting for CG work but that's more down to driver support and how many of our apps seem to have been written with nvidia in mind.

      however should it matter for a console with its own specific kind of drivers?

    • Sage
      Offline / Send Message
      Sage polycounter lvl 14
      It be interesting if they try to push real time ray tracing with the next consoles.
    • thomasp
      Offline / Send Message
      thomasp sublime tool
      Or 60 fps while we're at it. Wouldn't that be a killer feature. ;)

    • Aabel
      Offline / Send Message
      Aabel polycounter lvl 4
      If you are going to choose Nvidia to supply GPU's for your console you need to set aside a considerable amount of money for your legal department to hold Nvidia to the contract they sign, setting aside some money for PR to handle Nvidia's smears is also a good idea. I seriously doubt we will ever see an Nvidia GPU in a Sony or Microsoft console again. It will be interesting to see if Nintendo continues to stick with Nvidia.
    • littleclaude
      Offline / Send Message
      littleclaude polycounter
    • Spag_Eddy
      Offline / Send Message
      Spag_Eddy keyframe
      I still have way too much of a backlog on my PS4. I'm simply just not ready for the future yet  :/
    • thomasp
      Offline / Send Message
      thomasp sublime tool
      Something about the Xbox:

      Next Xbox To Feature Ray Tracing, 1TB NVMe SSD Storage; DevKit To Release After GDC 2019 – Rumor

      • CPU: Custom 8 cores / 16 Threads Zen 2 CPU
      • GPU: Custom NAVI @12+ teraflops
      • Memory: 16GB GDDR6
      • Storage: 1TB NVMe SSD @ 1+GB/s



    • PolyHertz
      Offline / Send Message
      PolyHertz interpolator
      Seems reasonable assuming a 2020 release, and $500+ price tag or if they plan to sell at a loss. That NVMe drive is going to cost them, but it's definitely time for consoles to move away from traditional mechanical hard drives.
    • thomasp
      Offline / Send Message
      thomasp sublime tool
      Yeah I'd be surprised if anybody in this race would go back to selling the hardware at a loss again, assuming the business model around it doesn't change. Doing it really screwed Sony up last gen, they spent years recovering from that. You'd think they all learnt a lesson there.

      Anyway, 12 teraflops puts the GPU a notch above a 1080 Ti, that would be a part even more expensive than the storage. Probably realistic though if they want 4k support and have the thing not be entirely outclassed in 2020 or whenever.

    • littleclaude
      Offline / Send Message
      littleclaude polycounter
      This must be the last hardware race don't you think? Sony have this one wrapped up pretty good according to vgchartz. (Dec 2018)


      My predictions for the future, Sony PS5 & Microsoft XBOX2 fight it out in a final showdown with a hardware solution but with a cloud based option in the near future. Nintendo release a totally cloud based solution and


    • PolyHertz
      Offline / Send Message
      PolyHertz interpolator
      EDIT: Nevermind. I need to stop assuming every post on Polycount is serious.
    • littleclaude
      Offline / Send Message
      littleclaude polycounter
      PolyHertz said:
      EDIT: Nevermind. I need to stop assuming every post on Polycount is serious.
      I am serious, I believe Cloud based consoles will be the future but maybe not this generation. I guess the question is what does this look like from a consumer point of view as anyone could come out with a console, maybe even Samsung or Amazon for example, the hardware to produce such a console would be relatively cheap. 

      It's not like it has not happened in the past, remember Onlive. It's going to be a really interesting next couple of years, that's for sure.


    • thomasp
      Offline / Send Message
      thomasp sublime tool
      Well, maybe some day. I don't think the network infrastructure at least around here is remotely up to that and that's apparently considered first world. Not everyone is living in the big city and speeds are dropping really fast once you leave the major population centres. I don't anticipate that will change in a few years and just in time.

      I could see consumers or rather the momentum shift to another vendor - as it did for a while with the Xbox 360 - but that's assuming that the challenger has the content available. Any bigger, better box will lose out to better content in the long run. I'd say both Sony and Nintendo are in a pretty good position, content-wise.

    • littleclaude
      Offline / Send Message
      littleclaude polycounter
      thomasp said:
      Well, maybe some day. I don't think the network infrastructure at least around here is remotely up to that and that's apparently considered first world. Not everyone is living in the big city and speeds are dropping really fast once you leave the major population centres. I don't anticipate that will change in a few years and just in time.

      I could see consumers or rather the momentum shift to another vendor - as it did for a while with the Xbox 360 - but that's assuming that the challenger has the content available. Any bigger, better box will lose out to better content in the long run. I'd say both Sony and Nintendo are in a pretty good position, content-wise.

      Yes, good point but on the flip side Netflix is doing just fine and it has titles that are available to watch in Ultra HD 4K . So using Netflix as a market  place model the users you lose due to poor internet infrastructure you would make up for with new users.

      It would be a bold move to drop the DVD/Blue-Ray hardware and one I don't think the market is quite ready for but I do think its on the horizon and this will be the last hardware iteration with such a device. but time will tell. 

      Maybe we will start to see more of this, :) Villagers in Wales with slow internet dig own trenches to install superfast broadband - Link


    • sacboi
      Offline / Send Message
      sacboi polycounter

      That's awesome :)

      Wish we had the same level of initiative and expertise rather than hodge, podge sellotaped 'together at the last minute' debacle those wasters in Canberra cooked up for our NBN : /

    • ZacD
      Offline / Send Message
      ZacD interpolator
      I doubt we'll see cloud based consoles until we see a single cloud based game that is successful. You don't you need an entire console to test out a platform concept, and a game designed around being cloud based could lead to some interesting ideas. (Also we all know Nintendo would be 10+ years behind on anything internet/cloud/multiplayer related). 
    • littleclaude
      Offline / Send Message
      littleclaude polycounter
      Sony and Google are denoting a mutually beneficial partnership for an open source render manager for visual effects, maybe something might come out of this relationship? 

      Read more about it here "Google and Sony OpenCue, "
      https://venturebeat.com/2019/01/24/google-and-sony-debut-opencue-an-open-source-render-manager-for-visual-effects/
    • littleclaude
      Offline / Send Message
      littleclaude polycounter
      Just found this - Ubisoft CEO: Cloud gaming will replace consoles after the next generation -

      Link - https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2018/06/ubisoft-ceo-cloud-gaming-will-replace-consoles-after-the-next-generation/




      There is also this possibility - "Elon Musk wants to cover the world with internet from space". That must freak out all the scientists and researchers that are uncovering the health risks of EMFs. 


    • Skinpop
      Offline / Send Message
      Skinpop polycounter lvl 4
      I highly doubt any next gen console will have 1 tb nvme hd. It's complete overkill to almost no benefit over more reasonable options.

      My biggest hope is that we get a decent PS controller. I dislike almost everything about the ds4(loved the ds3) but even if you like how it feels in the hands the crappy battery life and led makes it the worst first party controller of all time.

      My biggest fear is game streaming. A lot of people are excited about it but personally I can't help but think that streaming is the worst possible future for the industry.
    • thomasp
      Offline / Send Message
      thomasp sublime tool
      A 1TB SSD seems a little unusual but it might be a) only for a devkit configuration and/or b) console manufacturers might have access to some killer deals if they enter a long term agreement to purchase these at volume.

      Not sure what's wrong with the DS4, just seems improved in shape and handling all around compared to the DS3, especially the triggers. I love the audio streaming via bluetooth. Have a PS2 here as well with the DS2 pads - same shape as DS3 - and these feel horrible in comparison.

    • PolyHertz
      Offline / Send Message
      PolyHertz interpolator
      PolyHertz said:
      EDIT: Nevermind. I need to stop assuming every post on Polycount is serious.
      I am serious, I believe Cloud based consoles will be the future but maybe not this generation. 
      Nintendo is known to be the most reluctant of the three console holders to do anything regarding the internet. The idea that they of all companies would become cloud based sounds so absurd to me I thought it was a joke. Even on Switch it's clear it wasn't a focus during development when people have had to use setups like this:



      Sony is a bit more likely but I think they would push it very slowly and not try and force it on their customers. After all their current strategy is working very well for them worldwide, why mess with a good thing?

      Microsoft I could see maybe trying to switch to nothing but cloud-based services at some point though since they definitely seem to be the most gung-ho company regarding cloud services.
    • Neox
      Offline / Send Message
      Neox sublime tool
      Yes, good point but on the flip side Netflix is doing just fine and it has titles that are available to watch in Ultra HD 4K . So using Netflix as a market  place model the users you lose due to poor internet infrastructure you would make up for with new users. 
      Well you can't really compare a moviestream where people have all the time (maybe not the patience) in the world to buffer or download it, to a game that is happening in realtime. Any latency will destroy you game experience and you simply just cant buffer for 5 minutes to be able to then play more smoothly.
    • throttlekitty
      Offline / Send Message
      throttlekitty Polycount Sponsor
      Neox said:
      Yes, good point but on the flip side Netflix is doing just fine and it has titles that are available to watch in Ultra HD 4K . So using Netflix as a market  place model the users you lose due to poor internet infrastructure you would make up for with new users. 
      Well you can't really compare a moviestream where people have all the time (maybe not the patience) in the world to buffer or download it, to a game that is happening in realtime. Any latency will destroy you game experience and you simply just cant buffer for 5 minutes to be able to then play more smoothly.
      I was going to point this out, and also that streaming video has a couple built in hacks to ease bandwidth use. High action games with frequent user input can be bad for many people right now, before adding audio/video stream into the mix. I also think streamed games is in the future, but internet structure as a whole needs to improve first.

      Anyway, Square Enix is working on a streaming service, I don't think there's been significant news on it for a while though.
    • littleclaude
      Offline / Send Message
      littleclaude polycounter
      All good points. I would say it will be an interesting E3 but Sony PlayStation has pulled out from the E3 event which is the first time in the event’s 23-year history. I guess we will just have to sit tight and see what the future holds. 
    • ZacD
      Offline / Send Message
      ZacD interpolator
      Isn't the assumption Sony is going to have their own conference right around E3 instead?
    • pior
      Online / Send Message
      pior insane polycounter
      ..."I guess we will just have to sit tight"

      Meh ... I mean, what's the point of waiting/speculating anyways ? It's all kinda obvious isn't it.

      • MS and Sony will fit a more or less current PC into a dark box slightly too big than it should be, with the MS one being kinda blocky and the Sony one having a few weird angles on the sides.
      • Nintendo will just stick to the Switch for a while, and then eventually make a revision without the dumb detachable half-gamepads.
      • All three will try their hands at streamed gaming, but it will fail for MS and Sony because their market is not interested in that and understandably so - especially now that everyone sees the BS behind "games as services". And people who would be ok with streamed games play on their phones anyways. But it will probably work well for Nintendo, as that will be a good way for them to make people pay for the fifth time to play SM3. And I suppose that a streamed version of FN on cellphones would make sense too.

      And ... that's about it ?
    • Joopson
      Offline / Send Message
      Joopson Polycount Sponsor
      But I just got a ps4.

      I feel like this gen will have been too short, if we get a new generation in the next two years. I just don't see us pushing limitations yet in a way that makes me think a new gen of consoles will meaningfully improve the gaming experience.
    • thomasp
      Offline / Send Message
      thomasp sublime tool
      4K and HDR will be the thing that drives this update since - as I found out myself very recently - you basically cannot get any new half-decent TV without those features anymore. Can't even spot the difference between that and 1080p on my 65-inch unless I get very close to the screen. No benefit to the image when viewed from the couch.

    • ZacD
      Offline / Send Message
      ZacD interpolator
      thomasp said:
      4K and HDR will be the thing that drives this update since - as I found out myself very recently - you basically cannot get any new half-decent TV without those features anymore. Can't even spot the difference between that and 1080p on my 65-inch unless I get very close to the screen. No benefit to the image when viewed from the couch.

      HDR makes a pretty big difference if you have a TV that can get bright/dark enough and at least HDR has minimal performance impact. Bet we'll keep seeing dynamic resolution and a lot of 1440p being up-scaled to 4k for consoles. 
    • littleclaude
      Offline / Send Message
      littleclaude polycounter
      Google's Project Yeti, what's the deal?

      What time is the big reveal at GDC?


    • thomasp
      Offline / Send Message
      thomasp sublime tool
      ZacD said:
      HDR makes a pretty big difference if you have a TV that can get bright/dark enough and at least HDR has minimal performance impact. Bet we'll keep seeing dynamic resolution and a lot of 1440p being up-scaled to 4k for consoles. 
      Oops I was referring mainly to 4k resolution benefits in my little rant. :) I agree it's probably going to be a lot of upscaled content.
    • David-J
      Offline / Send Message
      David-J polycounter lvl 10
      Google Stadia looks pretty awesome. I know we have seen it advertised before with Onlive but now it's Google and all their resources. Maybe now this time it will work.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SOS-a4ks7s
    1
    Sign In or Register to comment.